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The shipping market is out of control or ushering in another surge

The shipping market is out of control or ushering in another surge

Column:Industry News    Date:2021/6/7 10:16:34    Viewed:

The available capacity is extremely scarce, the daily rent of container ships has soared, coupled with the worsening of port congestion due to the epidemic and the early arrival of the peak season, the container shipping market may usher in another surge.

The market is out of control? Earn a boat by running 6 times

It is reported that a Chinese company recently rented a 15-year-old 5060TEU container ship "S Santiago" at a sky-high price of 135,000 US dollars per day. The lease period is between 45-90 days. The owner of the "S Santiago" is Cyprus Sea Lines, and the entire ship is valued at US$38.48 million. This means that the owner can earn back one-sixth of the cost of the ship as long as it takes one trip.

The source said that the current market is "unseen before", more and more people come to inquire, and people are "paniced." The lease of the "S Santiago" was finalized last week, and it will not be surprising even if the rate this week reaches a new high.

Alphaliner pointed out that the current daily rent for short-term charters of container ships has been out of control. Depending on the source, the daily rent is between 100,000 and 145,000 US dollars, a record high, which is much higher than Hapag-Lloyd’s previous decision of 70,000-90,000 US dollars per day. Rent (lease period 2-3 months).

The major freight indices for shipping containers from Asia to Europe set a new historical record. The index freight rate exceeded US$10,000 for the first time, and the actual freight rate has reached the ceiling nearly 150 million US dollars. On the West Coast of the United States, with the recovery of Sino-US trade, the value of North Asia to the west coast of North America was estimated at USD 5,500/FEU on June 1, which is an increase of USD 700 from the previous week, which is the highest evaluation fee since S&P Global Platts launched the evaluation in 2017. rate. At the same time, the estimated value of goods outside of Asia destined for USEC on June 1 was US$6,800/FEU, an increase of US$600 over a week, and US$400 higher than the historical high of US$6,400/FEU on January 11, 2020.

According to Alphaliner's data, as of May 24, only 2.7% of container ships worldwide were idle, with a total capacity of 660,662 TEU, of which 70% (461,779 TEU) were due to ship maintenance.

Supply and demand imbalance! Port congestion worsens and the line peak season starts early

Port congestion.jpg

On the other hand, the worsening of port congestion caused by the epidemic has exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand in the container shipping market. As the fourth largest port in the world and the third largest port in China, Yantian Port of Shenzhen has implemented stricter epidemic prevention control, comprehensive screening and disinfection due to the infection of its crew. The west bank terminal is closed, and the east bank operation efficiency is only 30%, which greatly hinders I'm working. Statistics show that the throughput of Yantian Port reached 13.34 million TEU last year, which accounted for more than one-third of Guangdong’s import and export volume, as well as a quarter of China’s cargo volume to the United States. The severe congestion of Yantian Port has greatly hindered import and export work. .

In addition to Yantian Port, Shenzhen Shekou Port and Chiwan Port have also formulated relevant anti-epidemic measures. Only ships arriving at the port within 5 days can enter the gate.

Maersk, the world's largest shipping company, has notified customers that due to serious terminal congestion, the next sailing schedule may be delayed by 7 to 8 days, and some container ships will avoid passing through Yantian Port and Shekou Port to reduce the extent of the impact.

At the same time, the US port congestion problem is also getting worse. In order to alleviate the congestion at the Port of Los Angeles and Long Causeway in the United States, the shipping company has changed some ships to Oakland. However, due to labor shortages, the ships have to wait three weeks for the port, and Los Angeles and Long Causeway have to wait for one to two weeks. On the East Coast of the United States, the on-time rate in March this year was only 12%, one of the worst records ever.

Maersk pointed out that if there are two to three weeks of delay in the United States, Asian ports will have the dilemma of three ships arriving at the port at the same time. Maersk estimates that in June, the US West Line will lose 16% of its capacity due to port congestion.

With the already extremely tight supply of transportation capacity, Maersk also warned that the peak season for the U.S. route will start early this year because retailers are preparing for the strong back-to-school season, which may overlap with the peak summer season. The already tense shipping network brings greater pressure and may cause disruption to the supply chain.

The market is worried that the extremely unbalanced supply-demand relationship may cause another surge in freight rates. Anders Schulze, vice president and head of global shipping of Flexport, a new American freight and customs brokerage company, predicted that the freight rate per FEU on the east coast of the United States would rise to 23,000 US dollars, which is equivalent to the current multiple.

For the ship owner, the dream will still continue, but for the cargo owner, the nightmare will also continue.

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