In 2020, China's shipbuilding industry firmly implement the Party Central Committee, the State Council's decision and deployment, scientific coordination of the epidemic prevention and control and the resumption of production work, shipbuilding three major indicators of international market share to maintain a leading position, the transformation and upgrading of shipbuilding products is effective, repair industry to achieve greater growth, the rapid development of new offshore engineering equipment, the main production and operation indicators to complete better than expected. But by the global spread of the new crown epidemic, the world economic recovery slowdown, the ship sea market demand is insufficient, the rapid rise in production costs and other impacts, China's shipbuilding industry to maintain stable and healthy development is still facing serious challenges.
1. the basic situation of economic operation
(1) the shipbuilding completion volume to achieve growth
In 2020, the national shipbuilding completion of 38.53 million deadweight tons, an increase of 4.9%. Received 28.93 million deadweight tons of new ship orders, down 0.5% year-on-year. 71.11 million deadweight tons of ship orders in hand at the end of December, down 12.9% year-on-year.
The national completion of export ships 34.25 million dwt, up 2.1%; to undertake export ship orders 24.45 million dwt, down 9.3%; the end of December, holding export ship orders 65.21 million dwt, down 13.3%. Export ships accounted for 88.9%, 84.5% and 91.7% of the national shipbuilding completion, new orders, handheld orders, respectively.
(2) enterprise revenue growth profit decline
In 2020, the national above-scale shipbuilding industry enterprises 1043, to achieve the main business income of 436.24 billion yuan, an increase of 0.6%. Among them, shipbuilding enterprises 302.98 billion yuan, down 13%; ship supporting enterprises 49.49 billion yuan, up 2.4%; ship repair enterprises 29.93 billion yuan, up 13.5%; ship conversion enterprises 3.93 billion yuan, down 2.7%; ship dismantling enterprises 5.43 billion yuan, down 31.1%; offshore equipment manufacturing enterprises 43.96 billion yuan, an increase of 19.3%; beacon equipment and other floating devices manufacturing enterprises 520 million yuan, a decline of 17.2%.
Above-scale shipbuilding industry enterprises achieved total profits of 4.78 billion yuan, down 26.9% year-on-year. Among them, shipbuilding enterprises 930 million yuan, down 84.3%; ship supporting enterprises 1.74 billion yuan, down 25.3%; ship repair enterprises 1.93 billion yuan, up 13 times; ship conversion enterprises 480 million yuan, up 33.3%; ship dismantling enterprises 140 million yuan, down 41.7%; loss of 420 million yuan in marine equipment manufacturing enterprises. Year-on-year loss reduction of 1.73 billion yuan; beacon equipment and other floating devices manufacturing enterprises loss of 0.2 billion yuan, the same as the previous year.
(3) the amount of ship exports fell year-on-year
In 2020, China's ship exports amounted to $ 21.7 billion, down 11.3% year-on-year. Export ship products, bulk carriers, oil tankers and container ships still dominate, with a total export value of $ 9.98 billion, accounting for 51.4% of the total exports. Ship products are exported to 184 countries and regions, mainly in Asia. China's exports of ships to Asia, Europe and Latin America amounted to $12.3 billion, $3.36 billion and $2.58 billion, respectively.
2.the characteristics of the economic operation
(1) coordinate the epidemic prevention and control and resume work and production, production and operation better than expected
At the end of April 2020, the domestic epidemic was effectively controlled, and enterprises in China's shipbuilding industry resumed full-scale production, with the production rate reaching 98% and production order basically returning to normal. Ship enterprises use information technology and new technologies such as "5G+AR" to innovate the use of "cloud inspection", "cloud delivery", "cloud contracting ""cloud release" and other working methods to guarantee normal production, ensure that existing orders take effect and actively explore new markets. In the face of the severe situation and great difficulties, the whole industry withstood the test, and the main production and operation indicators for the year were completed better than expected.
(2) Leading international market share and maintaining high level of industry concentration
In 2020, the global new ship turnover dropped sharply by 30% year-on-year, and the amount of offshore market turnover dropped by 25% year-on-year. China's ship sea international market share are to maintain the world's leading, shipbuilding completion, new orders, handheld orders in deadweight tons accounted for 43.1%, 48.8% and 44.7% of the world total; China to undertake all kinds of offshore equipment 25 ships / seat, 2.04 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 35.5% of the global market share. Industry concentration remains at a high level, with the top 10 shipbuilding completion enterprises accounting for 70.6% of the country, the top 10 new ship orders accounting for 74.2% of the country, and the top 10 handheld ship orders accounting for 68% of the country. The competitive ability of leading enterprises has been further enhanced, with 5, 6 and 6 enterprises entering the top 10 in the world in terms of shipbuilding completion, new orders received and handheld orders respectively.
(3) ship research and development to make new progress, the transformation and upgrading effect is obvious
In 2020, China made new breakthroughs in the R&D and construction of high-tech ships. 23,000 TEU dual-fuel-powered ultra-large container ships, energy-saving and environment-friendly 300,000-ton ultra-large crude oil tankers (VLCC), 18,600 cubic meters LNG refueling vessels, large luxury ro-ro vessels "China Renaissance", etc. were successfully delivered; the world's largest 24,000 TEU container ship was undertaken. The world's largest 24,000 TEU container ship, 174,000 cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) ship, 190,000 tons of dual-fuel bulk carrier, 93,000 cubic meters of fully-cooled ultra-large liquefied petroleum gas (VLGC) and other bulk orders were received. The first domestic-made 135,500 GT large cruise ship entered the fast track of construction and started to be continuously carried in the dock. The full-sea depth manned submersible "Kampf" successfully completed the 10,000 meters sea trial and returned to the sea.
(4) the business situation of offshore enterprises has improved, and the performance of new equipment is bright
In 2020, the 100,000-ton deepwater semi-submersible production and storage platform "Deep Sea One" and the medium-deepwater semi-submersible drilling platform "Deep Blue Exploration" were successfully delivered, the floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) hull and upper module construction projects were steadily promoted, and the "Blue Whale No. 2" was successfully delivered. The "Blue Whale No. 2" semi-submersible drilling platform successfully completed the test mining task of combustible ice in the South China Sea. Offshore equipment manufacturing enterprises to seize the golden period of offshore wind power development, and actively undertake wind power installation vessels, offshore wind farm operation and maintenance vessels, offshore wind power project conduit frame, offshore booster station construction projects, while actively promoting offshore equipment "to inventory", business conditions have improved. The world's largest salmon vessel type aquaculture net box, the world's first outboard open hole type aquaculture vessel, the first intelligent seafood aquaculture net box and other equipment to achieve delivery, 100,000 tons of intelligent fisheries large aquaculture vessel construction.
(5) industry chain upstream and downstream synergy, and actively explore the domestic market
In 2020, China's shipbuilding enterprises actively explored the domestic market, deepened cooperation with domestic financial shipowners and domestic trade transport shipowners, and jointly seized market development opportunities, achieving good results. Successively signed a total of 7.25 million dwt of new ship orders with CBC Leasing, State Bank Leasing, Poyin Leasing and ICBC Leasing, accounting for about 25% of the total number of new ship orders in China. Ltd., Shanghai Pan Asia Shipping Co., Ltd., Shanghai Cereal Flow Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Shipping Group Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Dingheng Shipping Co., Ltd. all ordered new ships in domestic shipping enterprises to promote fleet upgrading and increase the competitiveness in the domestic trade transport market.
(6) ship repair industry rose against the trend, all key enterprises to achieve profitability
In 2020, ship repair enterprises seized the opportunity brought by international green rules, and the business of desulfurization tower retrofitting and ballast water treatment equipment renovation was full, bringing rich profits to enterprises. Statistics show that despite the impact of the epidemic, the key monitoring 15 repair enterprises completed the repair of a total of 3,380 ships for the year, an increase of 7% year-on-year, the ship repair output value of 19.89 billion yuan, an increase of 22.9% year-on-year, all achieved profit, exceeding the annual production and operation targets. The ship repair enterprises continued to promote high-end business transformation, and made new breakthroughs in the repair and refit of large liquefied natural gas (LNG) vessels and large cruise ships, with the successful delivery of the first domestic floating liquefied natural gas storage and regasification unit (LNG-FSRU) refit and the repair of the luxury cruise ship "Pacific World".
3. Problems and difficulties in economic operation
(1) Effective market demand is still insufficient
In 2020, due to the impact of the global epidemic combined with the expected economic downturn, shipowners' investment psychology was seriously affected in the short term, and the international ship and sea market was at a low level, with a serious lack of market demand. China's new ship orders for two consecutive years less than 30 million deadweight tons, handheld orders continue to decline, hit a new low since the financial crisis in 2008. Ship enterprises production guarantee coefficient (handheld orders / the average of the last three years of completion) is about 1.94 years, only a few enterprises can meet more than 2 years of production tasks, the backbone of enterprises generally face underemployment, some enterprises have the risk of production disconnection.
(2) the ship enterprise production is still affected by the epidemic continues
In 2020, although the domestic ship enterprises in a relatively short time to achieve the resumption of production, but by the global spread of the epidemic, some imported equipment delayed delivery, especially foreign personnel to China is restricted, international shipowners, crew, service engineers, etc. can not be in place in a timely manner, the installation and commissioning of ship projects under construction equipment, sea trials and delivery caused serious impact. Especially since the winter, the international epidemic has been spreading faster and the domestic epidemic has been disseminated at many points, and some imported equipments need to be quarantined according to the new regulations.
(3) Market development is limited or more difficult
In 2020, all international maritime exhibitions in Greece, Hamburg, Japan and the U.S. were cancelled or postponed, and the face-to-face communication activities between ship enterprises and overseas shipowners and shipping agents were almost completely stopped. 2020, due to the foundation of preliminary business negotiation, some enterprises achieved "cloud contracting" through video. In 2020, due to the foundation of business negotiation in the early stage, some enterprises realized "cloud contract" by video, but such stock orders have been consumed last year. Therefore, the ship market development in 2021 may be more difficult.
(4) The capital pressure of ship enterprises further increases
Ship enterprises "earnings, financing difficulties" problem has long existed, due to the epidemic led to increased capital pressure, and even the risk of rupture. The epidemic caused the general postponement of ship delivery, resulting in ship enterprises can not be timely return of funds, facing difficulties such as renewal of loans, bond extensions. Increased additional costs in epidemic prevention and control, human resources, logistics costs, etc., although the state and local introduced a series of preferential policies, but it is still difficult to offset the full cost increase. In addition, in 2020, the RMB appreciated 6.9% against the US dollar compared with the end of 2019, the price of 6mm and 20mm steel plates for shipbuilding increased by 16.6% and 19.9% respectively compared with the beginning of the year, and the labor cost of shipbuilding enterprises increased by about 15% on average.
4. Forecast
Looking ahead to 2021, many countries around the world have started vaccination, the new crown epidemic may be gradually controlled, and the world economy and trade are expected to slowly return to normal. If the international shipping industry and oil and gas industry recover, shipowners' investment confidence will be boosted and the suppressed market demand may be released. Comprehensive expert research forecast results, 2021 global ship and sea market new orders may appear compensatory rebound, new ship turnover reached 80 million deadweight tons, offshore equipment turnover of more than 10 billion U.S. dollars. 2021, China's shipbuilding completion volume is expected to be basically the same as in 2020, new orders or growth, handheld orders will be slightly reduced.
5. Relevant suggestions
(1) increase demand-side management efforts to ensure the stable development of the industry
Make full use of China's super large-scale market and complete industry chain advantages, establish a multi-party linkage collaboration mechanism led by the government, trade enterprises, shipping enterprises, shipbuilding enterprises, financial institutions and other common participation, around the main domestic cycle, international and domestic double cycle to promote each other's new development pattern, promote the demand-side management of the shipbuilding industry, and promote the healthy and stable development of the shipbuilding industry.
(2) Continuously increase investment in scientific research and innovation
All relevant units should seize the major opportunity of green transformation of shipping and shipbuilding and speed up the advancement of technological innovation, standard setting, equipment development and other fields. The world is cooperating to address climate change, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) continues to strengthen the new rules on carbon emissions and the implementation of the carbon emissions trading mechanism in the EU, the global shipbuilding and shipping market is changing from the current use of traditional fuel oil ships to a new system of environmentally friendly ships. We will strengthen our confidence and determination in green transformation, increase the investment in scientific research in related directions, and enhance our competitiveness in the field of green maritime technology and equipment.
(3) Strengthen the coordination of industry chain supply chain stability
It is recommended that the competent industry departments take the lead, industry associations, the specific implementation of the joint local government, the organization of shipping, shipbuilding, steel, logistics, finance and other key enterprises and institutions for the supply of raw materials, payment settlement, material control and other issues related to the supply chain stability of the industry chain to focus on the discussion, to solve the demands and interests of all parties concerned concerns, and to deal with short-term market emergencies, the establishment of a regular coordination mechanism.
(4) Precise measures to help enterprises overcome difficulties
In 2021, the economic development situation and market trends are still relatively complex, and the short-term impact on enterprises through market improvement is limited. In view of the continuous high price of raw materials, the exchange rate continues to rise, labor shortage and other internal and external environmental pressures, the shipbuilding industry enterprises are facing great pressure on capital liquidity. It is recommended to encourage policy-oriented financial institutions to increase support for the backbone of the ship and sea enterprises, through improving the operating loan amount, credit line, letter of guarantee services, special debt and other ways to ease the short-term business pressure on enterprises.
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